Economic Activity of Population in the Ukrainian Labor Market: Nonlinear Smooth Transition Model

This article presents the econometric analysis of labor force participation rate in Ukraine based on macroeconomic data for 2002—2014 years. In the article was reviewed a nonlinear logistic smooth transition autoregressive model which makes it possible to model the asymmetry in behavior of economic activity of population in the labor market and allows to describe various dynamic properties of the process during periods of expansion and recession. The results of modeling quantitatively characterize smooth changes in the behavior of the time series from periods of low growth rates to periods of high values. The estimated slope parameter which determines the transition smoothness shows that the economic activity of population quickly reacts to changes taking place in the labor market.